Thanks to the United States’s on again, off again relationship with high tariffs in the last few months amidst various other economic uncertainties, the global economy is predicted to experience an economic slowdown and, even more likely, a recession.
Book publishing has seen recessions before, with some devastating consequences. Many major publishing companies including some of the Big Five publishers (Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster, Hatchette, HarperCollins, and MacMillian) experienced a major decline in sales during the industry’s busiest time of year in late 2008, resulting in mass layoffs. It’s also important to point out, though, that eBooks were rising in popularity at the time. Publishers, industry experts, and book lovers alike anticipated eBooks taking a bigger toll on print books than they ultimately did. As more of a print book lover myself, I was relieved to see eBooks, like audiobooks, add to the market, rather than take something away from it.
There was a silly notion going around at the time of the 2008 recession that books as a consumer item were “recession proof” because they’re cheap (unlike cars and houses, I suppose?). But that’s simply not true. While most US publishers print their books within the US (allegedly exempting books from being tariffed), imported raw material needed to make books will still rise in price due to tariffs. These costs will then be passed on to the consumer. It’s hard to say when or how this will happen; but I can recall even in 2019 when I was laid off from my job at an independent publisher due to financial issues, we had been plagued by paper shortage issues for months. (The paper, as it happened, was being imported from Canada, and we were competing with Big Five publishers to use it.)
During the 2008 recession, the newly emerging online bookseller Amazon was able to take advantage of shrinking wallets by selling books cheaper than any indie (or chain) bookstore and running many out of business. Now, almost twenty years later, Amazon dominates the retail space entirely, and is one of the biggest self-publishing platforms in the world.
I suppose the most encouraging part of all of this for me, and for you, the writer, is that through all of this turmoil, people were still buying books. Even if the ways in which we bought books changed and even if I don’t happen to like the way we’ve all contributed to the downfall of many independent publishers and booksellers, we are still seeking books in whatever form is most accessible to us.
This leads me to other changes in the book world and how these changes might impact authors. Book bans are on the rise because, of course, why wouldn’t they be? What’s always so ironic about these kinds of bans is that they don’t often stem from individual parents trying to monitor their children’s media consumption, but rather, Moms of Liberty-type “activist” groups trying to pull any kind of diverse literature from schools entirely. The American Library Association reported that in 2024 a majority of book ban attempts came from organized movements: “Pressure groups and government entities that include elected officials, board members, and administrators initiated 72% of demands to censor books in school and public libraries.”
A study by Carnegie Mellon University recently revealed that book bans were actually directly linked to increases in circulation of certain books, causing the opposite impact that these political groups seek. Banned books saw circulation increases of as much as 12% after being banned as opposed to non-banned books. My immediate reaction is to think, of course, you tell a kid (hell, any adult) they can’t have something, they’re going to do whatever they can to get it. In effect, it may be a point of pride to find that your book was considered “controversial” enough to get banned. There is attention and readership drawn from these bans.
But is this the satisfying backfire I was hoping to report to you? Not exactly. Book bans are still a net negative for authors, because they mean limited public appearances at readings, schools, signings, etc. Republican politicians pushing book bans in their campaigns tend to pull donations from this messaging whereas, when it comes to book sales, authors only have room for loss. Perhaps sales go up in the states where the book is still accessible, but it’s hard to compensate for sales in an entire state where they are prohibited.
There are so many other ongoing issues impacting literacy, writers, and book publishing (AI, IMLS defunding, OK SB593) that I will have to do another post like this at a later date. As overwhelming as all of this chaos can be, it’s important to stay informed of the issues surrounding this industry, even if not all of it affects you directly. I encourage you to look into how these events are playing out for you locally, and get comfortable calling your Congressional representatives.
I’d love to look into a crystal ball and tell you that all of this will be fine, but we know better than that. My best guess is that things will get worse before they get better. We will adapt, even if that means, for example, choosing alternative methods of publishing we might have otherwise not used in a stronger economic environment, or perhaps innovating new ways to market our books on less censored forms of media. The mission hasn’t changed. We must keep writing because our words, our voices have never been more critical.
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Featured photo by Douglas Schneiders.
Hanna Etu 